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How a supply shock can cause prices to rise and the economy to stagnate

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Stagflation is a very challenging combination of conditions, and although quite rare, represents such a challenging environment that fears of it and discussion of it nonetheless often crop up.

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UK Inflation Release - Suspended reality as we go into Stagflation. the UK March Inflation was up at 3.5% despite the UK being on the verge of technical inflation. Francis Hunt discusses what to expect next as Government and MPC try walk a two tier interest rate policy.

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Tue, 7 Apr 2009 George Soros, legendary currency trader and chairman of Soros Fund Management, warns about the return of stagflation in the near future when the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates prematurely. "The moment this fear of deflation turns into a fear of inflation, you'll find interest rates rise in the long end which is going to choke off the recovery," Soros says. "If we are successful [in preventing the total collapse of the economy], we are heading from the prospect of deflation to stagflation." Watch Part 1 - "George Soros: Zombie Banks Are Drawing The Lifeblood Of Economic Activity" here: www.youtube.com Watch Part 2 - "George Soros: Dollar's Strength Is A Measure Of System's 'Sickness'" here: www.youtube.com Watch Part 4 here: [Coming Soon]

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Follow us on TWITTER: twitter.com Like us on FACEBOOK: www.facebook.com Facing severe domestic inflation and an overheating economy, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP ) has tightened money supply and decelerated economic growth. However, continual recession in the eurozone and in the US has hardly hit China's export industry. In 2012, to what situation will China's economy move forward? Will it achieve a soft landing? The issues arouse public concerns. Due to weak exports and soaring production costs, numerous business failures of small and medium enterprises have emerged in China. Surviving companies now face a year-end plight, such as loan repayment, salary payment, paying off debts to suppliers. As The Voice of America pointed out, difficult loaning, increased production costs, all hit China's small and medium businesses hard. Some of them might find it difficult to get through the coming Chinese New Year. China's export faces hardship owing to the sharp drop in external demand. As the most important driver for domestic demand, China's property industry is currently in a recession, too. According to the UK's Financial Times Chinese edition reports, China's tidal wave of cut housing prices has moved forward to second-tier and third-tier cities, from first-tier cities. In Erdos city, Inner Mongolia, housing prices plunged by 50%-70%, with massive numbers of houses unoccupied. The city has become a "ghost town". In 2012, will China's economy achieve a soft landing <b>...</b>

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Follow us on TWITTER: twitter.com Like us on FACEBOOK: www.facebook.com China's manufacturing is shrinking now. According to the latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) announced by HSBC, China's manufacturing activities fell to its lowest point in 32 months. Specifically, export orders appeared to be decreasing as well, which is an apparent signal for the shrinkage. Experts pointed out that the manufacturing sector is the pillar industry of China, thus its shrinkage is a critical alarm to the whole country's economy. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a globally-used indicator of macroeconomics. On Nov 23, HSBC announced a preview of China's November PMI. The index appeared to fall from last month's 51 to 48, which is its lowest point since March in 2009. What's more, 48 is already in the interval indicating shrinking manufacturing. PMI is a composite indicator reflecting manufacturing activity, which is calculated by several indicators for new orders, production, employment, stocks and logistics. A number over 50 indicates a growing manufacturing activity, otherwise a declining one. Economics professor at The City College of New York, Chen Zhifei, told NTDTV that China's manufacturing was still growing last year with increasing exports; however, in the recent three months, export orders continuously dropped and the manufacturing quickly turned to a shrinking trend, which made him believe that China is undertaking an economic hard landing. (Economics professor at <b>...</b>

Experts say shrinkage China's Manufacturing Foretells the Coming of Stagflation

Ben Stein gives his opinion.

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My commentary on what would happen in America if the price of oil hit $200/barrel. Massive unemployment, riots and possibly more wars.

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More at therealnews.com Dean Baker says this is the worst time for working families since the Great Depression

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How To Go To Heaven: www.jesus-is-savior.com triplecrisis.com The Risks of 21st Century Stagflation February 2, 2010 Well before the global financial crisis finally broke in September 2008, most people in developing countries were already reeling under the effects of dramatic volatility in global food and fuel markets. From late 2006, prices of most primary commodities first increased very rapidly, then collapsed even more sharply from their peaks in May-June 2008. This was not due to real economic forces, but rather financial activity, specifically the involvement of investors in index funds. Commodities emerged as an attractive investment avenue for financial investors from around 2006, when the US housing market showed the initial signs of its ultimate collapse. This was aided by financial deregulation that allowed purely financial agents to enter such markets without requirements of holding physical commodities. This generated a bubble, beginning in futures markets that transmitted to spot markets as well. From mid-2008 commodity prices started falling as index investors started to withdraw, accentuated by the global recession. But the fall proved to be quite short-lived, as prices started rising again from early 2009, even before there was any real evidence of global output recovery. The price increase between Dec 2008 and Dec 2009 has been 16% for all food items as a group, 96% for metals and as much as 110% for oil. Once again, this increase does not reflect real <b>...</b>

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Stagflation - when the economy is stagnant and inflation is growing

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www.NewWaveSlave.com 3-31-11 David Murrin, author of "Breaking the Code of History" talks about the stagflation that is present in the UK and the West. Murrin speaks of gold as not only a good alternative, but the best alternative to the fiat currencies that are being overly produced by Western countries. David Murrin predicts gold to go much higher and China to lead the way as the dominant country in the future as the Dollar continues its decline and loses reserve currency status. I personally find David Murrin fascinating and I believe his approach is exactly correct. I hope to find more (new) interviews and post them as soon as possible. Be sure to subscribe to not miss anything. Thanks!

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Reggie Middleton on Inflation, Deflation and Stagflation as the keynote speaker at the ING Real Estate Valuation Conference in Amsterdam

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Information on the money supply in the 1970's: www.marketoracle.co.uk It should also be noted that velocity didn't significantly change, which lends further credibility to Keynesianism not being falsified. This is because velocity being stable implies that there wasn't a move in aggregate demand. More examples of supply shocks: en.wikipedia.org

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Growing up on a small farm in rural Minnesota, Renée Haugerud learned early on about commodities prices and how to hedge them. Based on an illustrious career in the world's leading commodities trading centers, in 1997 she founded Galtere Ltd., a commodity-focused global macro registered investment advisor with roughly $1 billion in assets under management today. The flagship Galtere International Master Fund boasts a 12.5% annualized return, net of fees, since inception in 1999. Galtere is a unique global macro fund with a strong focus on real assets and commodity fundamentals which have been found to influence other asset classes. In this Opalesque.TV interview, Renée gives her investment outlook for the next decade where she believes commodities will outperform other strategies during a period of "inverse stagflation" or "reverse stagflation". While the period of 1978-1982 lead to stagflation, ushering in a 30 year cycle of paper and financial outperformance, Renée identifies 2007-2011 as the beginning of a period where tangible asset will consistently beat paper products for an extended period. In addition, learn about the following: Looking through the Commodities Lens of Renée Haugerud: - Real assets drive all asset classes and geographies - Nearly 13 years at Cargill -- Experience in all asset classes and understanding asset class interrelationships - How the rural background of a sheriff's daughter leads to a passion for commodities investing - The gold arbitrage <b>...</b>

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The markets opened sharply lower this morning on initial weakness in oil, Jobless Claims and PPI data. Jobless Claims jumped unexpectedly and PPI data continues to show inflation is surging. The worst case scenario for the Federal Reserve is stagflation, which may be on the horizon. After the markets sold early, they roared back with a vengeance as oil and all commodities caught a major bid. Oil higher is actually good for the stock market and is explained in the video. The Dollar is getting pounded again. Take the one week free trial to the Research Center and Intra Day Stock Chat. Make money with the pros.

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Thu, 18 Sept 2008 Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital and Steve Cordasco, host of the "Big Money" show on 1210-AM WPHT in Philadelphia, respond to Glenn Beck's question regarding the economic future of the country. Peter Schiff believes that it could be a combination of the 1929 Great Depression, the 1979 economic stagflation and the 1989 Soviet-style collapse while Steve Cordasco thinks that it will look a lot like stagflation of the 1970s.

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Stagflation is nothing new it has been going on for 11 years now

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I take a look at what the people are doing and searching for. Just by the #'s looks as if people know inflation will occur and not deflation. But infact Stagflation is occuring right now.

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Wondering about the American economy? This animated video explains inflation, stagflation, recession and more, all in 5 minutes. UPDATE: Due to popular demand, I have released a revised version of this video that doesn't have the "armageddon" title, and does not mention corporate taxes. Enjoy! www.youtube.com

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Ed Butowsky, Managing Partner of Chapwood Capital Investment Management, joins Gerri Willis on the Willis Report on Fox Business to discuss the rising concern that the US economy is entering an economic condition known as stagflation. To read more go to bit.ly

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How To Go To Heaven: www.jesus-is-savior.com pajamasmedia.com April 1, 2011 Even I know when too much is too much. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke? Not so much: The Federal Reserve's emergency programs in response to the financial crisis were successful in helping the economy and now the central bank is at risk of overdoing it, said Dallas Fed President Richard W. Fisher. The central bank "opened the floodgates" and "it worked," the regional bank chief, who votes on monetary policy this year, said during a speech today in Dallas. "We re- liquefied the economy. In my opinion, we might have done too much." Fisher, 62, reiterated a point he's made in the past week that the Fed may be going too far, even as he defended the central bank's initial decisions. But there's talk at the Fed at doing even more more — in the form of yet another round of quantitative easing. Or as we used to call it: running the printing presses nonstop. Here's the word from IBT: Douglas Borthwick of Connecticut-based Faros Trading believes the housing double dip will "translate into a double dip on the overall US economy, further rolling forward any stimulus-exit plans set by the Fed, and setting the stage for an announcement of QE3 in July." "Jobs and Housing remain the focus for the Fed, and both areas continue to face severe difficulties," said Borthwick. Try as Bernanke might, the housing market just won't reinflate. What is inflating are the prices on things consumers actually buy: US consumers face <b>...</b>

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Why the heck do I have to turn to overseas news commentary to get an educated and well informed opinion (or in this case -fact) on current market situations. Stephen Long (Economic commentator) alludes that another large financial Company may have a fall-out. Lehman Bros is a possible and likely institution to implode, but perhaps Long was referring to INDYMAC bank which recently had a literal "Run On the Bank". It is amazing how little of the truly important information is revealed to the general public any how , On July 1st the LAtimes (Los Angeles Times) ran an article detailing the response of INDYMAC denying allegations that it is close to a collapse, but one needs to ask oneself "if they were -- would they admit it? ". Of course they would not, there - I answered it for you . here are the references. Gordon, Macy "Schumer: Concerned over IndyMac Stability" June 26,2008 Forbes.com (online) - (source)Associated Press www.forbes.com E. Scott Reckard and Andrea Change " INDYMAC DENIES THAT IT'S CLOSE TO COLLAPSE" July 1,2008 Los Angeles Times www.LATIMES.com www.latimes.com ENJOY!!!

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Mon, 16 Feb 2009 Will Obama's spending bill and monetary policies of the Federal Reserve resurrect the Jimmy Carter economic era of stagflation? Sean Hannity speaks with Congressman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin), Ranking Member of the House Budget Committee.

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Wed, 25 Jun 2008 NOTE: THIS IS A RETROSPECTIVE (HISTORICAL) POST Billionaire investor Warren Buffett voiced his concerns about "stagflation," or slowing in the US economy while inflation accelerates. "We're right in the middle of it right now,'' said Buffett, chairman of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc., in an interview on Bloomberg Television during the commodities boom of 2008. "I think the `flation' part will heat up and I think the `stag' part will get worse.'' These two predictions were made by the Sage of Omaha about ten months ago. We should be glad only one of his two predictions ("the `stag' part will get worse") became reality - at least at the time this video was posted here, inflation has eased significantly from mid-2008 levels. Nonetheless, it is my conviction a second, more severe bout of inflation/stagflation is just lurking around the corner, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed for the other prediction. My apologies for the mediocre audio quality.

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Ron Paul says it all. There are consequences of FIAT system and overspending. And he explains it because he knows.

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Panel 1 with this Real house prices In a stagflationary era History is instructive 39% fall from 74 to 80 22 years to recover Panel 2 Startling parallels 1970s vs 2000s US war spending Loose monetary policy Caused global inflation High oil prices Panel 3 with Eventually high interest rates We forecast 40% fall in real house prices Over 30 years to recover

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Economist John Ryding breaks down stagflation to Debra Borchardt and outlines the limited options for the Fed.

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Tue, 5 May 2009 Andy Xie, former chief economist for Morgan Stanley in Asia, speaks with Martin Soong of Squawk Box about the consequences of massive money pumping by the Federal Reserve and central banks of other major economies. "We're seeing signs of inflation... I think next year, central banks will be forced into raising rates, even though the [global] economies will still be sluggish. But they will raise interest rates slowly, because they're terrified of pushing down the economies, so we will be stuck with inflation for a few more years. The most likely scenario for the world over the next few years is stagflation", warns the renowned economist.

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www.zerohedge.com Only a world war will bring down prices. www.zerohedge.com Money flowing OUT of the markets like a dam burst.

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Francis Hunt - Technicals greet Fundamentals in an uncanny fashion on this excellent short clip. It shows everyone the GBPUSD plays on his HVF call from 1.590 to 1.614 and how the fundamentals of stagflation provide an upside higher than expected Inflation spike to lead a break upside followed by a Bull flag, followed by an Ascending wedge delivering the spike down on bad growth numbers confirming a Recession is now in play.

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Il ne faut pas se voiler la face, l'inflation est de retour. Mais cette inflation est accompagnée d'une croissance faible. Stagnation et inflation, cela n'est pas sans rappeler une situation que les jeunes générations ne connaissent pas : la stagflation. Certes, c'est l'envolée des prix de l'énergie qui pousse actuellement l'inflation vers le haut. Cela se voit parfaitement quand on superpose l'évolution des prix des produits pétroliers au reste, reste représenté ici sur le graphique par l'indice sous-jacent. Le sous-jacent c'est le vrai marqueur des pressions internes sur les prix. Cette configuration ne parait finalement pas si extraordinaire. Elle s'est déjà produite en 2008, comme vous pouvez le constater. Cela n'a pas pour autant débouché sur une hausse générale des prix. Pourquoi alors sommes-nous si inquiets à Xerfi sur le risque inflationniste ? Pourquoi anticiper une hausse générale des prix alors que rien de tel ne s'est produit lors de la dernière envolée du cours du baril ? www.xerfi.fr www.xerfi.fr

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Short clip from the Adam Curtis documentary series Pandoras Box (1992). Outlining the stagflation crisis and the response Monetarism followed by a interview of Tony Benn.

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Subsrcibe to me on Facebook Rick Slick This is a story in layman terms of what the governmnet and monetary has done to the BASEL accord changing Banking lending practice, yes they havae tighten thse rules but by roughly only a small percent depneding on the LOAN type and still will cause the destruction of the USD PeterSchiff economy economic collapse crash gold silver oil bubble doom inflation depression recession rogersfaber ronpaul benbernanke eurodollar HangSang NYSE nasdaq currency crisis stagflation commodities

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Prepare AND Prosper! www.EconomicSurvival2012.com View The 'Video Tour' on the website and get a FREE sample pack! Food Prices Soar As Global Demand Exceeds Supply - Stagnant Wages + Rising Prices = Stagflation! The Price of food is NOT going back down. Insulate yourself from the hyperinflation that has already started. No MSG! Non GMO! Vegetarian! Lasts 25 years! food prices prices rise rising prices energy economy economic collapse stagflation inflation hyperinflation supply demand wages global warming power solar food storage survival 2012 news climate change free green energy crisis dollar crisis recession depression gas electric environment efoods direct dehydrated food america silver gold dollar efoods efoods global storable food debt ceiling default freedom economic federal reserve world bank demand prices fuel gas produce farming agriculture wages

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In this 30 minute interview, Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St, LLC interviews economic expert and Austrian School Economist, Michael Pento, of Pento Portfolio Strategies. They discuss the Federal Reserve and Ben Bernanke's recent announcements along with future moves by the Fed. Inflation, deflation, stagflation and asset allocation strategies for your portfolio are also discussed. Michael also talks about how he thinks precious metals will perform in 2012 and if he thinks China will experience a hard landing.

Michael Pento; Jason Burack; Austrian School of Economics; Inflation; Deflation; Stagflation; Precious Metals; Gold; Silver; China; Commodities; Economic Crisis; Ben Bernanke; Federal Reserve; CPI; Housing Bubble; QE; Stimulus; Quantitative Easing; Currency Wars; US Dollar Pegs